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The mortgage market is still decreasing

Linda Fornara Bertona

The mortgage market is still decreasing

According to estimates by Kìron, Tecnocasa Group, 2023 will confirm the estrangement of Italian families from the mortgage market. Fewer homes will therefore be purchased, especially in the lower-middle class, the accomplice being the continued increase in interest rates by central banks to cope with galloping inflation and generalized political instability.
"In 2023 we have already detected in the first two months a drop in demand of about 20 percentage points. The rise in interest rates will push away from access to credit a part of demand concerning lower income brackets", explains Renato Landoni, President Kìron Partner SpA. If in 2022 the decline was not yet so evident, for 2023 the estimates are not so rosy. "The year 2022 closes with 55.3 billion euros of mortgages disbursed, with a decline compared to 2021 of -9.2 percent equal to a countervalue in terms of volume of -5.6 billion euros. Given the socio-economic situation over the past year, the credit market has held up. Institutions, in light of their strong liquidity, continued to provide credit to households. The decline has been gradual. For 2023, we expect slightly lower mortgage volumes than in 2022. A landing range could be in the €48-50 bn area".
Analyzing the data concerning the last quarter, it is noted that mortgages supporting a real estate purchase operation have decreased by -12.8%, while the decline is more sustained for replacement and subrogation operations (-63.6%).